National financial commission sets 2017 projected GDP growth at over 6.7%

Friday, 2017-10-06 08:58:56
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Without any sudden changes, inflation in 2017 will only increase by 3% over the same period last year, according to the National Financial Supervisory Commission.
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NDO – The growth rate for the fourth quarter of this year will be around 7.5-7.7% and the GDP for the whole year of 2017 may reach over 6.7%, the National Financial Supervisory Commission (NFSC) has forecast.

According to the NFSC, GDP growth in the third quarter achieved impressive results, up 7.46% over the same period of last year, due to all three sectors of the economy (agro-forestry-fisheries, industrial and construction, and service sectors) maintaining their recovery momentum, especially in the manufacturing industries which saw a sharp increase of 12.77% (the same period last year increased by just 11%).

This is the third quarter that witnessed the highest growth rate in the last ten years.

The third quarter witnessed a surplus of US$1 billion, greatly improved after the first two quarters, which saw a deficit, due to increased exports.

The commission forecasts that exports will continue to rise sharply in the fourth quarter due to the improvement in global trade in the last months of the year.

The aggregate demand continued to improve, contributing to the growth in the third quarter. Investment capital increased positively over the same period last year, as FDI disbursement, in the first nine months of the year, was estimated at US$12.5 billion, an annual increase of 13.4%.

The NFSC also noted that the “trend” component – the indicator showing the supply capacity of the economy – has continuously improved, demonstrating that the solutions proposed by the Government, to improve the investment environment and business development, have achieved positive results, creating a strong impetus for economic growth.

In Q4, consumption and investment demand is forecast to increase sharply as the rate of disbursement of investment in capital construction is accelerated.

Meanwhile, exports are also likely to rise sharply due to favourable developments in the world economy, as well as global trade growth.

In addition, according to the commission’s analysis, inflation is tends to be stable as food and foodstuff prices are less likely to fluctuate. In the absence of a sudden adjustment of public service prices in the last months of the year, inflation for the whole 2017 would only increase by approximately 3% over the same period last year.