ASEAN’s economic growth could bounce back to 8% by 2021

Thursday, 2020-06-11 16:30:46
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Vietnam has taken on the role of ASEAN Chair in 2020. (Photo: asean.org)
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NDO/VNA – Economic growth in the ASEAN region could rebound to an average 8% in 2021 after falling into recession in the first half of 2020, a report suggested on June 8.

The report, written by Oxford Economics and commissioned by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) suggested that most Southeast Asian economies will fall into recession in the first half of 2020 before recording a 1.9% contraction for the full year.

The report said Thailand will be one of the worst hit in the region because tourism and travel account for 20% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

On the other hand, Vietnam will emerge the least affected with its lead in unwinding measures as compared to other regional peers, although it is not immune to the sharp slowdown in trade flows, the report said.

The adverse impact on Southeast Asian economies is forecast to turn the corner in the second half of 2020 as Chinese import demand and global trade recover at a consistent pace, while a slower pace of normalisation will continue to weigh on tourism-dependent economies, according to the report.

It added that coordinated fiscal stimulus packages and monetary easing from authorities across the region will support the recovery in economic growth.

On the whole, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to cause the global economy to shrink by 4.7%, it noted. This is more than double the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 and will be the biggest global recession in post-war history.